http://effectuation.org/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effectuation
http://davetroy.com/posts/effectuation-how-entrepreneurship-really-works
Causation: If I can predict the future, I can control it.
Effectuation: If I can control the future, I do not need to predict future.

Inc. Interview: How Great Entrepreneurs Think

http://www.inc.com/magazine/20110201/how-great-entrepreneurs-think.html

무엇이 위대한 기업가를 만드는가? 기업가적 심리학에 대한 토론은 대개 창의성, tolerance for risk, 성취에 대한 열망 등을 다루지만, 이것들은 가르쳐지는 성질의 것이 아니다. 그래서 Saras Sarasvathy는 전문가적 기업가들이 어떻게 생각하는지를 연구했다.

15년간 연구했고, 245명의 기업가를 컨택해서 45명이 참여했다.

그녀는 연구 후에 master 기업가들은 그녀가 effectual reasoning이라고 부르는 것에 의존한다고 결론지었다. Brilliant한 개선가들인 기업가들은 구체적인 목표를 가지고 시작하지 않았다. 대신에 그들은 지속적으로 그들의 개인적인 강점과, 보유하고 있는 모든 자원들을 어떻게 사용할지를 평가하고 목표를 계속해서 발전시켜 나갔다. 위급상황에는 창의적으로 대응해나갔다. 대조적으로, Corporate executives들은 causal reasoning을 했다. 그들은 목표를 세우고 그것을 달성할 수 있는 최선의 방법을 부지런히 찾아나갔다.

Do the doable, then push it
Woo partners first
Sweat competitors later
Don't limit yourself

Causation and Effectuation: Toward a theoretical shift from economic inevitability to entrepreneurial contingency

Academy of Management Review, 2001, Vol. 26, No. 2, 243-263.

Table 1. Contrasting Causation and Effectuation

Categories of Differentiation	Causation Processes	Effectuation Processes
Givens	Effect is given	Only some means or tools are given
Decision-making selection criteria	Help choose between means to archieve the given effect Selection criteria based on expected return Effect dependent: Choice of means is driven by characteristics of the effect the decision marker wants to create and his or her knowledge of possible means	Help choose between possible effects that can be created with given means Selection criteria based on affordable loss or acceptable risk Actor dependent: Given specific means, choice of effect is driven by characteristics of the actor and his or her ability to discover and use contingencies
Competencies employed	Excellent at exploiting knowledge	Excellent at exploiting contingencies
Context of relevance	More ubiquitous in nature More useful in static, linear, and indepent environment	More ubiquitous in human action Explicit assumption of dynamic, nonlinear, and ecological environments
Nature of unknowns	Focus on the predictable aspects of an uncertain future	Focus on the controllable aspects of an unpredictable future
Underlying logic	To the extent we can predict future, we can control it	To the extent we can control future, we do not need to predict it
Outcomes	Market share in existent markets through competitive strategies	New markets created through alliances and other cooperative strategies